Energy Expert Urges Zambians Not to Panic Over 2027 Kariba Water Allocation

New Energy Science and Technology Engineer and independent energy analyst Bornface Zulu has urged Zambians not to panic over the reduced water allocation for electricity generation at Kariba Dam in 2027, saying the country’s expanding generation capacity and growing investment in solar power could help strengthen energy security.

Engineer Zulu says Zambia is better positioned to manage potential electricity supply challenges associated with forecast El Niño conditions, following efforts to diversify the country’s energy mix and increase investment in alternative sources of power.

In an analysis of the country’s energy outlook, Engineer Zulu notes that Zambia’s installed electricity generation capacity has increased from approximately 3,100 megawatts in 2021 to 4,722 megawatts in 2026, representing a reported increase of 52.3 percent.

He also points to growth in solar power, stating that installed solar generation capacity has risen from 178 megawatts in 2024 to 1,027.5 megawatts in 2026, surpassing the Government’s target of 1,000 megawatts.

According to engineer Zulu, these developments demonstrate progress in reducing Zambia’s historical dependence on hydropower, which remains vulnerable to changes in rainfall and water levels.

The Zambezi River Authority has allocated 23 billion cubic metres of water for electricity generation at Kariba Dam in 2027, with 11.5 billion cubic metres allocated to ZESCO Limited and an equal amount to Zimbabwe Power Company.

The allocation follows forecasts indicating an increased likelihood of below-normal rainfall during the 2026/2027 rainy season associated with El Niño conditions.

However, Engineer Zulu says the announcement should be considered alongside the country’s ongoing investments in solar energy, thermal generation and other power-generation technologies.